found that our own species, survival is a legacy problem and that in order to satisfy the deepest self-actualization there is no need for enormous amounts of energy –where Kardashev seems to focus on. Therefore, we argue that the fourth stage would be very different.
While both Kondratiev's and Kardashev's theories are stylised idioms of a much more complex underlying reality, they paint a picture that is recognizable and allows us to realize how important scientific progress is. Indeed, if we do not make sure that we have alternatives to this planet, then our species is doomed to extinction rather soon. A Yellowstone explosion, an asteroid the size of an small country, a rogue planet, a travelling black hole, a nearby supernova explosion and so many more things can make our earth disappear or at least render it unsuitable to sustain life as we have known it for many thousands of years or – in the very best case – trigger a severe mass extinction.4 Only science will be able to help us to transcend the limitation of the thin crust of this earth.
Only science has brought welfare and wealth, only science and innovation will help us to leave a lasting legacy in this universe.
But what is that “science”?
Notes
1 1 With “scientific method” we refer to the empirical method of acquiring knowledge based on observations, scepticism and scrutiny from peers, reproducibility of results. The idea is to formulate a hypothesis, based on logical induction based on observations, then allowing peers to review and publish the results, so that other can falsify of conform the results.
2 2 See elaboration on coherent risk measures for example in Artzner et al. (1997), Artzner et al. (1999), and De Brouwer (2012).
3 3 Dominating the universe has multiple problems as there is a large part of the universe that will be forever invisible, even with the speed of light, due to the Dark Energy and the expansion of the universe.
4 4 With this statement we do not want to to take a stance in the debate whether the emergence of the Homo sapiens coincided with the start of an extinction event – that is till ongoing – nor do we want to ignore that for the last 300 000 years species are disappearing at an alarming rate, nor do we want to take a stance in the debate that the Homo sapiens is designing its own extinction. We only want to point out that dramatic events might occur on our lovely planet and make it unsuitable to sustain intelligent life.
♣2♣ The Scientific Method and Data
The world around us is constantly changing, making the wrong decisions can be disastrous for any company or person. At the same time it is more than ever important to innovate. Innovating is providing a diversity of ideas that just as in biological evolution might hold the best suited mutation for the changing environment.
There are many ways to come to a view on what to do next. Some of the more popular methods include instinct and prejudice, juiced up with psychological biases both in perception and decision making. Other popular methods include decision by authority (“let the boss decide”), deciding by decibels (“the loudest employee is heard”) and dogmatism (“we did this in the past” or “we have a procedure that says this”). While these methods of creating an opinion and deciding might coincidently work out, in general they are sub-optimal by design. Indeed, the best solution might not even be considered or be pre-emptively be ruled out based on flawed arguments.
Looking at scientific development throughout times as well as human history, one is compelled to conclude that the only workable construct so far is also known as the scientific method. No other methods haves brought the world so many innovations and progress, no other methods have stood up in the face of scrutiny.
scientific method
The Scientific Method
Aristotle (384–322 BCE, Greece) can be seen as the father of the scientific method, because of his rigorous logical method which was much more than natural logic. But it is fair to credit Ibn al-Haytham (aka Alhazen—965–1039, Iraq) for preparing the scientific method for collaborative use. His emphasis on collecting empirical data and reproducibility of results laid the foundation for a scientific method that is much more successful. This method allows people to check each other and confirm or reject previous results.
However, both the scientific method and the word “scientist” only came into common use in the nineteenth century and the scientific method only became the standard method in the twentieth century. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that this became also a period of inventions and development as never seen before.
scientist
Indeed, while previous inventions such as fire, agriculture, the wheel, bronze and steel might not have followed explicitly the scientific method they created a society ready to embrace the scientific method and fuel an era of accelerated innovation and expansion. The internal combustion engine, electricity and magnetism fuelled the economic growth as never seen before.
Figure 2.1: A view on the steps in the scientific method for the data scientist and mathematical modeller, aka “quant.” In a commercial company the communication and convincing or putting the model in production bear a lot of importance.
The electronic computer brought us to the twenty first century and now a new era of growth is being prepared by big data, machine learning, nanotechnology and – maybe – quantum computing.
Indeed, with huge powers come huge responsibility. Once an invention is made, it is impossible to “un-invent” it. Once the atomic bomb exist, it cannot be forgotten, it is forever part of our knowledge. What we can do is promote peaceful applications of quantum technology, such as sensors to open doors, diodes, computers and quantum computers.
singularity
For example, as information and data technology advances, the singularity1. It is our responsibility to foresee potential dangers and do all what is in our power to avoid that these dangers become an extinction event. Many inventions had a dark side and have led tomore efficient ways of killing people, degenerating the ozone layer or polluting our ecosystem. Humanity has had many difficult times and very dark days, however, never before humanity became extinct. That would be the greatest disaster for there would be no recovery possible.
So the scientific method is important. This method has brought us into the information age and we are only scratching the surface of possibilities. It is only logical that all corporates try to stay abreast of changes and put a strong emphasis on innovation. This leads to an ever-increasing focus on data, algorithms, mathematical models such as machine learning.
Data, statistics and the scientific method are powerful tools. The company that has the best data and uses its data best is
