sceptics were surprised by this sudden reversal of fortune. In 2013, ebook sales did not continue their meteoric rise but actually fell slightly – from $1,543 million in 2012 to $1,510 million in 2013, a decline of 2.1%, as shown in table 1.3 and figure 1.3. Ebooks showed a small increase in 2014 and then fell more sharply in 2015, down to $1,360 million, a decline of 15%, which was matched by a similar decline in the following year. Figure 1.3 also shows the rate of growth from one year to the next. It shows that the rate of growth was extremely high in 2009 and 2010, around 170% each year, but then the rate of growth began a steep decline until it reached a number just below zero in 2013. After a small increase in 2014, the rate of growth remained negative from 2015 to 2018.
Table 1.2 Ebook sales as a percentage of total revenues of major US trade publishers, 2006–2012
| 2006 | 0.1 |
| 2007 | 0.5 |
| 2008 | 1.1 |
| 2009 | 2.9 |
| 2010 | 7.6 |
| 2011 | 17.3 |
| 2012 | 23.2 |
| Source: Association of American Publishers | |
Table 1.3 US ebook revenue for trade books and rate of growth of ebook sales, 2008–2018
| Revenue ($ millions) | Rate of growth (%) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 69.1 | |
| 2009 | 187.9 | 171.9 |
| 2010 | 502.7 | 167.5 |
| 2011 | 1095.1 | 117.8 |
| 2012 | 1543.6 | 41 |
| 2013 | 1510.9 | –2.1 |
| 2014 | 1601.1 | 6 |
| 2015 | 1360.5 | –15 |
| 2016 | 1157.7 | –15 |
| 2017 | 1054.3 | –8.9 |
| 2018 | 1016.1 | –3.6 |
| Source: Association of American Publishers | ||
Figure 1.3 US ebook revenue for trade books and rate of growth of ebook sales, 2008–2018
Source: Association of American Publishers
If we then look at print books and ebooks as percentages of total sales (table 1.4 and figure 1.4), we can see that ebooks level off at 23–24% in 2012, 2013 and 2014 and then begin to decline, falling to around 15% in 2017 and 2018. Print books, on the other hand, continue to account for the lion’s share of sales, falling to around 75% of total sales in 2012, 2013 and 2014 but then rebounding, rising to between 80 and 85% from 2015 to 2018.
Table 1.4 Print books and ebooks as percentages of total US trade sales
| Print books | Ebooks | |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 98.9 | 1.1 |
| 2009 | 97.1 | 2.9 |
| 2010 | 92.4 | 7.6 |
| 2011 | 82.7 | 17.3 |
| 2012 | 76.8 | 23.2 |
| 2013 | 76.6 | 23.4 |
| 2014 | 75.9 | 24.1 |
| 2015 | 79.3 | 20.7 |
| 2016 | 83.2 | 16.8 |
| 2017 | 84.3 | 15.7 |
| 2018 | 85.3 | 14.7 |
| Source: Association of American Publishers | ||
Figure 1.4 Print books and ebooks as percentages of total US trade sales
Source: Association of American Publishers
And if we then extract the ebook percentages and reformat the vertical scale of this graph (figure 1.5), we can see that the growth of ebooks during this period displays the pattern of the classic technology S-curve: adoption is slow at the beginning, it then takes off and grows rapidly when there is a breakthrough of some kind, and then levels off when the market has been saturated or the limits of performance have been reached. In some cases, the S-curve may decline after this point as the technology no longer improves, alternative technologies appear that steal market share, novelty fades or demand wanes for other reasons. In the case of ebooks, the take-off occurred in 2008–9, following the introduction of the Kindle, and sales rose steeply until 2012 when they levelled off and then fell back.
