Figure 1.13 UK ebook sales as a percentage of total sales by category, 2008–2018
Beyond the US and the UK, the take-up of ebooks has been much more modest to date. It is difficult to gather accurate data which are strictly comparable to the data for the US and the UK, as the methods used for gathering data vary from one country to another. Rüdiger Wischenbart and his colleagues have produced what is probably the most thorough comparative analysis of ebook market trends, and their analysis is regularly updated in their annual Global eBook report.16 Table 1.10 summarizes some of their findings, showing ebooks as a percentage of the total trade market in five European countries. The findings of Wischenbart and his colleagues suggest that ebooks account for around 5% of trade sales in many European countries, although overall percentages of this kind conceal a great deal of variation between different kinds of books and between different publishing houses. As in the US and the UK, the highest percentages for ebook sales are found in general fiction and in genre fiction, such as romance, mystery, sci-fi and fantasy.
Table 1.10 Estimated ebook share of total trade revenue in selected European markets, 2016
| % of total trade market | |
|---|---|
| Germany | 4.6 |
| France | 3.1 |
| Italy | 4 |
| Spain | 6 |
| Netherlands | 6.6 |
| Source: Global eBook 2017 | |
There is also some evidence to suggest that ebook growth is slowing down in some non-English markets and may be plateauing, though at significantly lower levels than in the US and the UK. Figure 1.14 shows ebooks as a percentage of total sales in the trade market in Germany between 2010 and 2016.17 This shows that ebooks took off in Germany after 2011, rising from less than 1% in 2011 to around 4% in 2013; ebooks then levelled off, rising to only 4.6% by 2016. Some publishers surveyed in 2013 by the German book trade association, the Börsenverein des Deutschen Buchhandels, reported higher ebook sales, closer to 10% of overall revenue, but in any case the figure remained well below the percentage reached in the US and the UK before ebook sales began to level off.18 By the end of 2015, all German trade publishers had found that ebook sales were largely flat.
Figure 1.14 Ebooks as a percentage of total trade sales in Germany, 2010–2016
Source: Börsenverein
Patterns in other parts of the world are difficult to compare, partly because the bases on which data is gathered may be different and partly because the infrastructures and markets are often very different. In Brazil, for example, digital sales probably accounted for around 3% of trade publishers’ revenue in 2016.19 For other large markets, such as India and China, it’s hard to get reliable and comparable data. Wischenbart and his colleagues estimate that ebook sales in India were less than 1% of total sales in 2015,20 and estimate that ebook sales for trade books in China were around 1% in 2014,21 though it’s impossible to know how accurate these estimates are. The most common reading devices in China are smartphones rather than dedicated reading devices, and China Mobile, one of two major telecom providers in China, owns the largest online mobile reading platform. With over 700 million smartphone users in China by 2018 and with the second-largest book market in the world after the US, the potential for the growth of digital reading in China is considerable, even if ebook sales to date have been modest.
This cursory glance at patterns in Europe and elsewhere highlights the enormous variability in the ways in which the digital revolution has affected the book publishing industry in different countries and regions of the world, and underscores the fact that one cannot generalize from the US experience. Indeed, so far from being the harbinger of future developments globally, the US experience may turn out to be the exception – we simply don’t know. For the extent to which ebooks replace traditional print-on-paper books depends not only on the type of book, but also on a host of factors such as the role of large corporations like Amazon and the extent to which they have invested, or might be willing to invest, in creating platforms and distribution systems; the availability of reading devices that are attractive and affordable for local populations; the availability of desirable content in appropriate languages and formats; the different pricing and taxation regimes that apply and, in particular, whether there is a fixed price regime that forbids or limits the discounting of books – this factor alone can make a huge difference to the attractiveness or otherwise of ebooks; and the role that governments, legislators and judicial authorities might play in regulating practices and adjudicating disputes – not to mention the cultural tastes, preferences and practices of readers, all of which may vary considerably from one country, region, culture and linguistic regime to another. There is no reason to assume that the digital revolution will disrupt the publishing industry in the same way everywhere, sweeping through it like a technological tsunami, and the evidence to date suggests that this is not what is happening. Rather than a single consistent pattern, we see enormous variability in levels of digital uptake in trade publishing, with the US and, to a lesser extent, the UK standing out as the two countries where ebooks have become
