never returned. By 2014, the city’s population had nearly recovered, as some emigres returned and new residents moved in, but it remained somewhat below pre-hurricane levels nevertheless.
Droughts and resultant crop failure and famine can also push people to migrate. For example, during nearly a decade in the 1930s, drought conditions in the Plains states created the Dust Bowl, which forced millions of people to move to other parts of the United States.
While refugees fall under the social and political migrant categories, internally displaced migrants are more broadly defined as including those displaced by armed conflict, human rights violations, and natural disasters. Those who are internally displaced have not crossed an international border, yet have been pushed away from their regular place of residence.
The severity of internal displacement caused by natural disasters relates to a society’s degree of vulnerability. Vulnerability is the level of susceptibility to harm people have when exposed to a disaster. At the individual scale, this relates to characteristics such as income, age, mobility, and gender. For example, the poor and elderly may be more vulnerable to harm when displaced by an earthquake, as they struggle more than others to obtain food and shelter.
Figure 3.20.Natural disaster and migration. Hurricane Katrina damage in the 9th Ward of New Orleans. Massive flooding from Hurricane Katrina pushed many to emigrate from New Orleans. Photo by Patricia Marroquin. Stock photo ID: 3638784. Shutterstock.
Vulnerability also varies at smaller scales, such as by country. Countries differ on a range of factors, such as political stability, level of economic development, and more. A society will be more vulnerable to natural disasters, such as drought, when it is intertwined with poverty, political instability, and armed conflict. For instance, both Afghanistan and South Sudan had over one million internally displaced people in 2015 due to both armed conflict and drought conditions, while Ethiopia had nearly 300,000 (figure 3.21). All of these countries are poor, with governments that lack resources to end conflict and improve agricultural infrastructure.
When armed conflict and natural disasters occur in the same place, internal displacement can be much more severe. In some cases, drought worsens or causes armed conflict. In the case of Ethiopia in 2015, drought conditions led pastoralists to move livestock onto lands traditionally use by pastoralists from different tribes. This led to armed conflict between tribes over increasingly limited pasture land for their livestock.
Figure 3.21.Internal displacement. Families in South Sudan gather to collect water. South Sudan’s internally displaced population was well over one million in 2015. Photo by Paskee. Stock photo ID: 176894750. Shutterstock.
In other cases, armed conflict can worsen impacts from drought, leading to or exasperating internal displacement. During conflict, food and agricultural aid may not be able to reach people in conflict zones. This lack of aid can force many of them to move to new areas.
Residents of richer countries, such as the United States, are less vulnerable overall when disaster strikes. More people have insurance that can help cover losses from floods and fires, while the US government is better equipped to assist with food and shelter. Not only can richer countries respond more effectively to disasters, but disasters are less likely to occur in the first place. For instance, richer countries have better irrigation systems to reduce vulnerability to drought, buildings are better built and thus resist earthquakes, and fire departments are better equipped to control wildfires. For these reasons, internal displacement from disasters tends to be less severe and for a shorter time in more developed countries. However, those who are more likely to be internally displaced and remain that way for a longer period tend to be individuals who are more vulnerable because of poverty, old age, and other socioeconomic characteristics.
Forced and voluntary migration
Push and pull forces are often discussed in terms of migration that is forced or voluntary. Generally, economic migration is seen as voluntary. While some people may feel forced to move due to unemployment or a lack of economic opportunity, for the most part, people are free to choose whether or not to migrate. For this reason, those deemed economic migrants are rarely given refugee status or counted as internally displaced persons.
People who migrate because of armed conflict, persecution, or environmental disasters, however, are more often seen as part of forced migration. People in this category are more likely to receive refugee status or be counted as internally displaced people. During the European migrant crisis of 2015−16, countries of the European Union struggled to separate migrants who were forced by warfare or persecution to flee to Europe from those who arrived as voluntary economic migrants. In general, Syrians fleeing civil war were regarded as forced migrants and given priority for refugee status. Others, such as those from Afghanistan and countries of North Africa, were classified as economic migrants and denied legal entry.
In reality, the difference between forced and voluntary migration can be blurred, and it can be difficult to fit migrants into just one category. Migrants search for security and opportunity for themselves and their families. Poor economies and insecurity often go hand in hand, so teasing out who migrated primarily because of risk to their safety and who migrated primarily for economic opportunity is difficult in most cases.
Go to ArcGIS Online to complete exercise 3.2: “Push and pull forces.”
Spatial interaction and migration
Understanding how some places push migrants to leave and other places pull migrants in is an important first step in understanding migration patterns. But once migrants decide to leave a place, they typically have more than one choice of where to move to. Thus, is it important to return to the idea of spatial interaction between places.
Distance decay and intervening obstacles
While differences between places in terms of economic, social, political, and environmental characteristics are powerful determinants of migration, intervening obstacles lie between places. These obstacles can direct the flow of migration between different places. One important obstacle is distance. As you recall, distance decay refers to the tendency for spatial interaction to occur more between places that are close together than between places that are far apart. Interaction decays, or declines, as distance increases between two places. Thus, the farther two places are from each other, the more difficult it is to migrate between them. With distance come increases in costs and the potential for risk to life and limb. Economic costs for transportation will be higher if one wants to migrate a greater distance. Similarly, cost in time will increase. Risk can also increase with distance, with greater odds of becoming the victim of crime, being stopped by government authorities, or facing inclement environmental conditions, such as dangerous extremes of heat or cold.
To use the example of Syrian emigrants again, many more migrated to nearby Jordan, Lebanon, or Turkey than to Europe. As these countries lie adjacent to Syria, costs in terms of money and time were much less than the costs of migrating to Europe. Furthermore, short moves by land to these countries were much safer than attempting dangerous crossing of the Mediterranean Sea.
The dangers involved with migrating longer distances are also evidenced by those who make their way from sub-Saharan Africa north to Libya as they attempt to reach Europe. Migrants are frequently abducted by criminal gangs to be held for ransom and beaten until family members pay for their release. Those who cannot pay are forced to work as slaves, and sexual abuse and forced prostitution is common. Upon arrival in Libya, they are held for weeks or months in squalid housing with limited food and water until a boat is ready to take them across the Mediterranean Sea. Even after embarking for Europe, the
