development (figure 3.11). This relationship is described by the migration transition theory, which is closely related to the demographic transition theory discussed in chapter 2. In preindustrial societies, emigration is low. High, yet roughly equal, rates of births and deaths mean that population growth is minimal, so there is no demographic pressure to emigrate. Furthermore, because of limited income, people do not have the resources to travel to new places.
Figure 3.11.Migration transition theory. Emigration increases as countries industrialize and urbanize, but as they get richer, emigration falls. Image by author.
As countries begin to industrialize and urbanize, as in stage 2 of the demographic transition, high birth rates and falling death rates result in a population boom. Incomes also increase during this time as economies shift from basic agriculture to mechanization on farms and in factories. With population pressure and higher incomes, migration increases significantly. During this stage, there is massive rural to urban migration as people shift from agricultural work in rural areas to manufacturing work in cities. There is also emigration to other countries, as people seek new opportunities farther from home.
As countries continue to develop through urbanization and industrialization, they enter stage 3. During this stage, birth rates fall, resulting in a slowing of population growth. As population pressures decline, rural to urban migration and emigration rates slow somewhat.
Finally, modern, urban stage 4 countries with low birth and death rates, have low levels of emigration. Migration tends to be city to city, while net international migration is positive as more migrants arrive than leave.
Given that Mexico has been one of the most important sources of immigrants to the US in recent decades, it is useful to view Mexican immigration in terms of the migration transition. Figure 3.12 shows how income and fertility have changed in Mexico since 1990. Whereas in 1990 the per capita income was $5,820, by 2014 it had risen in real dollars to $17,200. At the same time, the total fertility rate had fallen from nearly 3.5 children to about 2.2. As Mexico transitions to a higher income and lower fertility country, the migration transition theory predicts that emigration will decline.
As pointed out previously, Asian immigration to the US is now higher than that from Latin America. As the economies of Asia grow, a larger number of people have the financial resources to immigrate to the United States. While birth rates in much of Asia are relatively low, the sheer number of people in the region means that a substantial number are available and have the financial resources to emigrate.
Figure 3.12.Mexico: Income and fertility. Mexican emigration should decline as incomes rise and fertility rates fall. Data source: World Bank.
Social and cultural push and pull
Social and cultural factors, including social connections, language, and religion, also drive migration. In terms of personal social connections, many people are pulled to places where friends and family already live, while in other cases, people may be pushed away by troublesome friends or abusive family relationships.
Language can also play a role in migration. For instance, the English-speaking population of Quebec, Canada, decreased from the late 1960s through the late 1980s as a number of laws promoting the French language were put into effect (figure 3.13), which pushed to other Canadian provinces some businesses and residents who spoke only English. At the same time, French-speaking migrants from former French colonies in the Caribbean and Africa, while probably migrating primarily for economic reasons, were pulled to Quebec because of a common language.
Especially in the case of migration pull forces, language plays a similar role in many locations. France attracts migrants from former North African colonies such as Algeria and Tunisia, while the United Kingdom and the United States attract more English-speaking Nigerians. Likewise, many emigrants from Latin America have moved to Spain because of their common language, which allows them to more quickly adapt to and integrate with the host country.
Along with language, one of the most powerful facets of identity for some people is religion. For this reason, it can play a significant role in migration. Mass movements of Hindus and Muslims in South Asia came with the region’s independence from Great Britain in the late 1940s and the formation of Hindu-dominated India and Muslim-dominated Pakistan and Bangladesh. Religion was also a major force during the formation of Israel in shaping who lives there and in the Palestinian Territories. In more recent years, the Middle East has seen a dramatic shifting of religious populations. Sunni and Shiite Muslims increasingly live in separate parts of Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia, while small Christian, Jewish, and other minority populations in places such as Egypt and Iraq have been pushed out of the region in large numbers.
Figure 3.13.French language signage in Quebec, Canada. Laws promoting the French language led to emigration of some English-speaking Canadians and immigration from some French speaking countries. Photo by Rob Crandall. Stock photo ID: 248614414. Shutterstock.
The Yazidi people in Iraq constitute a recent example of how religion can be used as an excuse to push people away from their homeland. In 2014, as the Islamic State terrorist organization was gaining territory in Iraq and Syria, the Yazidi people were forced to flee their land (figure 3.14). In the eyes of the Islamic State, the Yazidis, whose religion is one of the most ancient of the Middle East, were seen as devil worshipers who had to be eliminated. At least 5,000 Yazidi men were killed by the Islamic State, and thousands of women and children were taken captive, some for sexual enslavement and forced marriage to the organization’s fighters. Those who were not killed or captured fled their villages to survive. Only the eventual defeat of the Islamic State will allow these people to return to their homes.
Figure 3.14.Religion and migration. A refugee camp in Dohuk, Kurdistan, Iraq, and a Yazidi grandmother with two children in the Kanke refugee camp, Kurdistan, Iraq. Many Yazidis forced to flee persecution by the Islamic State sought safety in refugee camps in Iraqi Kurdistan. Dohuk photo by Paskee. Stock photo ID: 176894732. Shutterstock. Kanke photo by Owen_Holdaway. Stock photo ID: 294848531. Shutterstock.
Political push and pull
Political push and pull forces can also be significant determinants of migration. This includes issues such as conflict and peace or persecution and human rights. Places with high levels of violent crime or war will frequently push people away. Young migrants from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador have been emigrating to escape violence in some of the most crime-ridden places in the world, where youth are often recruited by force into street gangs (figure 3.15). In 2015, El Salvador had the highest homicide rate of any country not at war. Extortion by gangs is rampant in these countries, where bus drivers, small business owners, and residents of poor neighborhoods are forced to pay protection money under threat of violence. For these reasons, emigrants continue to flow out of these Central American countries, many of whom attempt to immigrate to the United States.
Figure 3.15.Crime and migration. Soyapango, El Salvador. Special Forces officers from the Grupo Reacción Policial guard an alley during a gang raid. Disrupting criminal gangs in Central America is essential for reducing violence and resulting pressure to emigrate. Photo by ES James. Royalty-free stock photo ID: 30996073
Likewise, there has been mass migration as people have been pushed away from
