rebalance toward the (East) Asia-Pacific region, so U.S. warships were frequently sent to patrol the South China Sea; U.S. and eleven regional states reached the agreement of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deliberately without China.
As the rebalance strategy failed to balance China in regional affairs, the Trump Administration replaced it with the Indo-Pacific strategy. Aside from the adjustment of the U.S.’s grand strategy, the Trump Administration has been trying to resolve two issues in regional relations: U.S. trading deficit with regional countries and North Korean denuclearization. Obviously, America’s East Asian strategy and policies have been experiencing a historical transition.
U.S. strategy of rebalance
The strategy reflected U.S.’s concern over its regional dominance and the consequence of China rising. As the Obama Administration took U.S. out of the Financial Crisis of 2007–2008, it began to rebalance toward the region for two reasons as explained in the following sections.
China rising
China reformed its economy from 1978. This made China realize stable economic growth for 40 years. For example, China’s GDP grew 75.47 times, from US$148.382 billion in 1978 to US$11,199 billion in 2016 (see Table 1).3 China replaced Japan as the world’s second largest economy in 2010. It is also possible for China to replace U.S. as the largest in 2030s.4
Based on its growing power, China is more assertive in regional affairs. The actions China took actually changed the status quo in two sub-regions.
Since the Japanese nationalization of Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, China began to patrol the waters of the islands from 2012. China unilaterally set the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone in 2013. By these activities, China broke the status quo of the Sea.
Since 2013, China has reclaimed seven artificial islands in the South China Sea.5 Aside from civil facilities like lighthouses being built on them, China has also deployed advanced weapons like J-11 fighter jets.6 Although the ruling of the Arbitration of South China Sea was a disadvantage, China has succeeded in dividing the ASEAN countries. On July 24, 2016, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting in Laos reached no consensus about the ruling of the Arbitration.7 By these actions also, China broke the status quo in the Sea.
Table 1. China’s annual GDP statistics in 38 years (1978–2015) (Monetary unit: US$ billion.)
Source: http://data.worldbank.org.cn/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN, 2016/08/27.
China proposed the initiative of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in 2013. It was received warmly by many countries, including U.S.’s close regional allies. Although the U.S. pressed them not to join the bank, many of them, like Australia, joined in 2015.8 IMF agreed to add RMB to its reserve currency basket in 2015.9 It was a milestone in RMB internationalization. By these steps, China expanded its influence in regional economy and finance.
China’s assertions, actions and initiatives made U.S. see the far-reaching consequences of China rising. Essentially, the rebalance strategy was to balance the consequences of China rising.
U.S. recovery from the financial crisis
The Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 was considered as the worst one since the Great Depression in 1930s.10 Compared to 2008, U.S. GDP (see Table 2)11 declined 2% in 2009, and many Wall Street financial companies like Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc went bankrupt or were acquired by other companies.12
The U.S. took many steps to recover its economy. In 2008, U.S. President Bush signed a historical plan worth US$700 billion to stem the deterioration of the Crisis.13 In 2009, President Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 worth US$787 billion aimed at helping U.S. recover from the Crisis.14
The efforts of the Obama Administration were proven to be effective. The U.S. economy attained moderate growth in the following 6 years. As U.S. was recovering from the Crisis, the Obama Administration found that China had made itself into a stronger regional existence and began to change the status quo in the two sub-regions. How to balance the unbalanced region was a major concern for the Obama Administration.
Table 2. U.S. annual GDP statistics in 10 years (2006–2015) (Monetary unit: US$ trillion).
Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US&name_desc=true, 2016/09/01.
Competitive efforts of U.S. to rebalance
To some extent, the U.S. strategy of rebalance focuses on balancing the consequence of China rising. For pushing the strategy, the U.S. took comprehensive efforts as follows:
(1)U.S. enhanced its regional military existence. More and more U.S. military power was deployed. It not only increased the number of military personnel but also moved from other places into the region with advanced weapon systems: F-35 stealth fighter jets, P8 surveillance aircrafts, and so on.15 The U.S. military also interfered into regional affairs. When China changed the status quo in the South China Sea, the U.S. military reacted to prevent further changes in the Sea. From 2015, the U.S. military interfered in countless incidents in the Sea. Aside from sending destroyers like Lassen in 2015, two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups kicked off operations in the Philippine Sea in 2016.16
(2)Regional multilateral occasions were used to push rebalance. If regional countries could support the U.S. stance, China would face region-wide pressure. So, many U.S. officials were sent to attend international meetings like the Shangri-La Dialogue to push the initiative.
U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said that “all countries should have the right to freedom of navigation and overflight. Turning an underwater rock into an airfield simply does not afford the rights of sovereignty” in “Shangri-La Dialogue 2015.”17 In the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit 2015, U.S. President Obama addressed ASEAN states by stating that “for the sake of regional stability the claimants should halt reclamation, construction and militarization of disputed areas.”18
(3)U.S. gained support from regional allies. U.S. has a geopolitical advantage. Many countries in or neighboring East Asia are U.S. allies or quasi-allies: (1) allies: Japan, Korea, Philippines, Australia and Thailand; (2) quasi-allies: Singapore and India.19
In 2016, The Joint Statement of the Japan–U.S.–Australia Trilateral Strategic Dialogue stated “Ministers expressed their strong support for the rule of law and called on China and the Philippines to abide by the Arbitral Tribunal’s Award of July 12 in the Philippines–China arbitration.”20
(4)U.S. made efforts to restrain China from gaining leadership over regional economy. As the Chinese initiative of AIIB had the potential to undermine U.S. leadership over regional economy, U.S. pressed its regional allies not to join the bank.21 The U.S. intention was clear in reaching TPP with eleven regional countries:
