East Asia and the states in it, the competition between the rising China and the hegemonic U.S. is a long-term trend. U.S., China and others should prepare their strategies and policies. U.S.–China cooperation is also a long-term trend as serious conflict between the two is not in the interest of all regional countries. Their strategies and policies should also be prepared.
In general, competition with cooperation between U.S. and China in the past and now should also be the trend in the future. It is the overall background for regional relations. If regional countries participated in regional relations from this context, they would benefit from regional development; if they could not, their interests might suffer from the strategic misjudgment.
The overall background is set, but the specific strategies and policies different countries adopt would be different.
U.S. strategies and policies
National interests lay the foundation of American strategies and policies in the U.S.–China competition. If U.S. competed with China, it would be for its interests. If U.S. cooperated with China, it would also be for its interests.
For U.S., China rising is a trend that is difficult to reverse. But how to deal with the rising China to best realize U.S. interests would depend on U.S. calculations. By reasonable calculations and for its interests, it would be possible for U.S. to establish practical strategies and policies.
As serious conflicts might not occur in U.S.–China competition in nuclear times, perhaps cooperative competition or competitive cooperation is reasonable for U.S. to develop relations with China.
Competition
Although reversing China rising is difficult, the U.S. could compete with China. If there was U.S.–China competition, concessions would be made between the two. By the concessions, U.S. could gain its interests. If the U.S. could gain its interests, the consequence of China rising would be less negative.
The interest-driven competition should be conducted with reasonable thinking. The concessions made with China are win–win games. It is impossible for the two countries to gain their respective interests at the same level and at the same scale. Sometimes U.S. gains more, while sometimes China does. For the U.S., gaining less does not mean that it is losing the competition.
In competing with China in the times of China rising, U.S. has realized the two longest periods of economic growth in history.86 From May 1991 to March 2001, U.S. realized an economic growth for over 120 months. From June 2009 to now, U.S. has been showing continuous growth for 108 months, which is still in progress. The economic history reveals that China rising brings chances for U.S. economy, so it would be possible for U.S. to be benefited if it could take into future the reasonable competition of the past.
Cooperation
Cooperation is a reasonable way for the U.S. to prevent the U.S.–China competition from deteriorating into serious conflicts. It could balance the negative effects of the competition to regional and U.S.–China relations.
At the global, regional and bilateral levels, U.S.–China cooperation has been realized in the past. In the future, the cooperation at these three levels is still necessary. In global affairs, U.S. and China could cooperate in terrorism, global warming, and so on. Their cooperation is necessary for the world to resolve these problems.
In regional affairs, U.S. and China could cooperate in North Korean denuclearization, reaching an inclusive multilateral trading agreement.
In bilateral affairs, U.S. and China could cooperate to manage the U.S. trading deficit with China, lessen the impact of Taiwan on their relations, and so on.
Chinese strategies and policies
Since the Chinese economic reform in 1978, China has been rising for four decades. The peaceful rising quickly shortens the power gap between China and the U.S. It also makes the U.S. feel disadvantaged. Compared to the past, the rising of 40 years makes Sino-U.S. relationship more competitive. For China, rising in the competition with U.S. is a long-term trend. Chinese strategies and policies should thus be made according to this trend.
Peaceful rising is the Chinese core interest in development. For maintaining the momentum of rising, China should manage well the relations between peaceful rising and its competition with the U.S. For preventing the competition from deteriorating into serious conflicts, China should keep a low profile in the rising and take steps to lessen the tensions in the competition.
At the same time, China should study the U.S. more. Although the U.S. competes with China by bringing up strategies like “rebalance” one after the other, it does not mean U.S. has no management of its competition with China. Perhaps the U.S. also does not want serious conflicts with China. It is possible for peace, stability and opportunity to coexist with competition in future U.S.–China relations.
China is stronger now than in the past. The still rising power will make China stronger in the future. China would have more capabilities to compete with the U.S., to react to new challenges, and to propose new initiatives. At that time, China should be more discreet in its dealings with other countries. U.S. setbacks in the War on Terror (2003–) and the Iraq War (2003–2011) are lessons for the rising China. Being the stronger power does not mean discretion is not a virtue of a state. If China hopes not to push its interests and rise into danger, discretion should be set as the precondition of Chinese competition with U.S.
Other regional countries’ strategies and policies
For other regional countries, there are two situations to face in the coming future. One is still the fact of China rising and its consequence. It changes power distribution between China and other regional countries. The other is U.S.–China competition. No regional countries could keep themselves from the consequence of the competition. For better realizing their interests, strategies and policies should be prepared.
Hedging is better than taking sides
U.S. and China are both important for regional countries to realize their respective interests. Supporting one side against the other is dangerous for their interests. Both U.S. and China could compose sanctions against the countries taking the side of its major competitor. At the same time, taking sides has negative effects on regional relations. On the one hand, taking sides would make one side more advantaged and more aggressive. Regional relations would thus be made more competitive and more complex. On the other hand, taking sides could not help settling the hot issues in U.S.–China competition. So, regional countries should look before they leap to taking sides.
Compared to taking sides, hedging is a better option. To some extent, hedging means to be neutral in the U.S.–China competition. On the one hand, the neutral position of regional countries would make the competition the business of the two powers directly involved. The negative consequence of the competition would be limited at a bilateral level, and so regional relations would be less disrupted.
However, the neutral position could help the success of mediating diplomacy by regional countries. Neutral position constitutes the legitimacy of mediation. It is a constructive stance in regional affairs. Both U.S. and China might see the good intentions of regional neutral mediators. As U.S. and China accept their mediation, the tensions in the competition would be lessened and regional stability could be maintained.
1“Country Report: U.S.,” see https://countryreport.mofcom.gov.cn/record/view110209.asp?news_id=58151
