The Birth-Time of the World and Other Scientific Essays. John Joly

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      The time required to form a halo could be found if on the one

       hand we could ascertain the number of alpha rays ejected from the

       nucleus of the halo in, say, one year, and, on the other, if we

       determined by experiment just how many alpha rays were required

       to produce the same

      [1] _Phil. Mag._, March, 1907 and February, 1910; also _Bedrock_,

       January, 1913. See _Pleochroic Haloes_ in this volume.

      21

      amount of colour alteration as we perceive to extend around the

       nucleus.

      The latter estimate is fairly easily and surely made. But to know

       the number of rays leaving the central particle in unit time we

       require to know the quantity of radioactive material in the

       nucleus. This cannot be directly determined. We can only, from

       known results obtained with larger specimens of just such a

       mineral substance as composes the nucleus, guess at the amount of

       uranium, or it may be thorium, which may be present.

      This method has been applied to the uranium haloes of the mica of

       County Carlow.[1] Results for the age of the halo of from 20 to

       400 millions of years have been obtained. This mica was probably

       formed in the granite of Leinster in late Silurian or in Devonian

       times.

      The higher results are probably the least in error, upon the data

       involved; for the assumption made as to the amount of uranium in

       the nuclei of the haloes was such as to render the higher results

       the more reliable.

      This method is, of course, a radioactive method, and similar to

       the method by helium storage, save that it is free of the risk of

       error by escape of the helium, the effects of which are, as it

       were, registered at the moment of its production, so that its

       subsequent escape is of no moment.

      [1] Joly and Rutherford, _Phil. Mag._, April, 1913.

      22

      REVIEW OF THE RESULTS

      We shall now briefly review the results on the geological age of

       the Earth.

      By methods based on the approximate uniformity of denudative

       effects in the past, a period of the order of 100 millions of

       years has been obtained as the duration of our geological age;

       and consistently whether we accept for measurement the sediments

       or the dissolved sodium. We can give reasons why these

       measurements might afford too great an age, but we can find

       absolutely no good reason why they should give one much too low.

      By measuring radioactive products ages have been found which,

       while they vary widely among themselves, yet claim to possess

       accuracy in their superior limits, and exceed those derived from

       denudation from nine to fourteen times.

      In this difficulty let us consider the claims of the radioactive

       method in any of its forms. In order to be trustworthy it must be

       true; (1) that the rate of transformation now shown by the parent

       substance has obtained throughout the entire past, and (2) that

       there were no other radioactive substances, either now or

       formerly existing, except uranium, which gave rise to lead. As

       regards methods based on the production of helium, what we have

       to say will largely apply to it also. If some unknown source of

       these elements exists we, of course, on our assumption

       overestimate the age.

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      As regards the first point: In ascribing a constant rate of

       change to the parent substance—which Becker (loc. cit.) describes

       as "a simple though tremendous extrapolation"—we reason upon

       analogy with the constant rate of decay observed in the derived

       radioactive bodies. If uranium and thorium are really primary

       elements, however, the analogy relied on may be misleading; at

       least, it is obviously incomplete. It is incomplete in a

       particular which may be very important: the mode of origin of

       these parent bodies—whatever it may have been—is different to

       that of the secondary elements with which we compare them. A

       convergence in their rate of transformation is not impossible, or

       even improbable, so far as we known.

      As regards the second point: It is assumed that uranium alone of

       the elements in radioactive minerals is ultimately transformed to

       lead by radioactive changes. We must consider this assumption.

      Recent advances in the chemistry of the radioactive elements has

       brought out evidence that all three lines of radioactive descent

       known to us—_i.e._ those beginning with uranium, with thorium,

       and with actinium—alike converge to lead.[1] There are

       difficulties in the way of believing that all the lead-like atoms

       so produced ("isotopes" of lead, as Soddy proposes to call them)

       actually remain as stable lead in the minerals. For one

      [1]

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