unit-level storage depots, especially near the DMZ. Current ammunition stockpiles are estimated at over one million tons as well as major military POL war reserves, despite the severe shortage of fuel supplies for the civil economy.
The Nautilus Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology estimates that North Korean fuel consumption for 30 days of full-time combat would be up to 200,000 tons, and it would take 4 months to restock military fuel, given North Korea’s current supply rate, either by bringing in fuel stored in rear areas or from refining new fuel and then moving it into combat zones. However, one of North Korea’s military objectives is to take the entire Korean peninsula within 30 days and it could probably replenish its fuel stocks with the numerous ROK civilian POL gas stations and supply points.
Substantial food and combat ration war reserves are stockpiled, despite widespread starvation and malnourishment in recent years. Information from interviews with North Korean defectors and World Food Program officials suggests that the North Korean food rationing system operates on a priority basis, feeding KWP members and military and police officers while leaving many ordinary people in hunger. Despite its improved harvest in recent years, North Korea still suffers from a chronic food shortage, with the country needing approximately 6 million tons of grain a year to provide basic nutrition for its 22 million people.
Capacity to Perform Missions when Directed. North Korea’s ability and capacity to perform its missions when directed has not changed since the Korean War. A survivor of Pork Chop Hill and Silver Star recipient, Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Earle Denton describes the opponent he faced on the Korean peninsula: “The North Korean soldier was a formidable warrior and enemy. He was resourceful and tenacious on the battlefield. He followed orders without deviation and was willing to give his life for mission accomplishment without question. He did not surrender.”
Since the Korean War, the KPA soldier has had no reason to change his ethic on performing his mission. In fact, over 53 years of reinforcement by his chain-of-command concerning the “dark forces in the South” probably has only strengthened the resolve of the KPA.
The KPA currently is judged to be capable of defending the DPRK, conducting special operations against the ROK and Japan, and maintaining internal security. It currently maintains the capability to initiate a war of reunification against the ROK with little warning; however, it has a declining capability to prosecute such a war for an extended period of time.
North Korea has over 200,000 vehicles, 1,000 locomotives, and over 20,000 railcars that are mostly nonmilitary but would be mobilized to support a conflict. Much of this transportation is tied to reserve force units that would provide a substantial part of the logistic support required by military forces and would move personnel, ammunition, and supplies into the ROK during a conflict. Truck transportation units would provide a full range of support. However, shortages in truck transportation could be supplied by North Korean SOF and agent-commandeered ROK civilian trucks which would be plentiful throughout South Korea.
Rail assets would provide heavy-lift capacity to move armor, self-propelled artillery, and resupply from national depots. Merchant and fishery vessels would support naval forces and ground troops along the peninsula’s coastal waters. The civil air transport fleet would be mobilized to carry troops and high-value cargo and possibly to deliver chemical and biological warfare agents.
However, the KPA would still be hard-pressed to provide logistic sustainment to KPA troops operating well south of the DMZ. The KPA probably plans on using South Korean fuel, food, and other logistics. Information concerning the KPA’s plan to feed, provide ammo resupply, and fuel its attacking forces is unknown. This could be one of the primary factors limiting DPRK from initiating an offensive attack. However, South Korea has a plentiful supply of civilian fuel stations for gas, diesel, and other POL products.
Some analysts have determined that urbanization has taken maneuver ground away from advancing North Korean ground forces. Additionally, during any offensive, South Koreans fleeing Seoul and other northern areas would clog the road systems and further reduce North Korea’s ability to travel quickly. However, as South Korea continues to build new modern highways, North Korean forces would have no compunction about destroying or bulldozing cars off the roads in advance of their mechanized forces.
Ability to Fight with Little or No Warning. North Korea deploys approximately 65 percent of its military units and up to 80 percent of its estimated aggregate firepower within 100 km of the DMZ. Figure 6 depicts the southerly forward movement of KPA forces over the decades. North Korea theoretically could invade the south without recourse to further deployments and with relatively little warning time. However, this forward deployment also is positioned to deter any attack coming from the south. It is estimated that if North Korea decided to initiate hostilities, the Republic North Korea decided to initiate hostilities, the Republic 36 hours warning under ideal conditions, or as little as 12 hours if the KPA already was at an alerted status.
Force multipliers for ensuring success for any NK offensive operations include surprise, the United States being preoccupied in another major area of operations (i.e., Operation IRAQI FREEDOM), or the location of U.S. forces in the Pacific Command (PACOM) area (i.e., 7th Fleet participating in an exercise in Australia or conducting tsunami relief operations in Indonesia).
Fight with Unacceptable Delays. In 2000, North Korea continued to improve its military, working hard to arrest a decline in readiness and to upgrade its capability. Highlighting these enhancements was an ambitious program to improve ground forces capabilities such as the deployment of large numbers of long-range 240mm multiple rocket launcher systems and 170mm self-propelled guns to hardened sites located near the DMZ.
Defectors may provide the best insight into the capabilities and readiness of the KPA. Defectors have only limited information about military affairs, except in the case of life in the army, which is experienced by most men and many women. Because military organization and capabilities are considered state secrets, the best open-source information may still be defector testimony.
One questions whether the KPA would honor its orders to initiate an attack without delay. Kim Nam Joon, former KPA second lieutenant, stated that: “In the first stages of a war, 90 percent of the KPA soldiers would do as they were told — invade South Korea. They are ignorant, they don’t know right from wrong.” Although this may lead North Korean soldiers to conclude that their leaders have been lying to them, it instead may become a motivator as KPA soldiers become incensed about why their “brothers and sisters in the south” have not provided assistance to the North and have grown fat and corrupt.
Ability to Perform Its Missions Promptly. Mandatory military conscription lasts 8 years on average, with most servicemen performing the same job in the same unit the entire period. This stability in the ranks allows North Korean units to maintain readiness, while limiting the expenditure of scarce resources. However, this readiness may be false. North Korea is in a dilemma where they cannot reduce the military force because of the immensity of maintaining the large quantities of equipment in the KPA inventory and of providing labor for construction (fortifying the country and placing everything into underground facilities) and agriculture (the military must produce its own vegetables and meat). Military bases try to run greenhouses and farms, but they fail for the lack of materials and proper management.
Colonel Yoo Song Il, KPA Supply Corps, stated that in 1992, there was 9 days of food reserve for war. Daily food requirements for soldiers were 560 grams (20 oz) of rice, 240 grams (8.5 oz) of other grain, 100 grams of meat (3.5 oz), 1 KG of vegetables (2.2 lbs), 20 grams of soy sauce, and 10 grams of cigarettes. Kim Jong Il told them that soldiers must produce their own meat and vegetables. Another defector reported that malnutrition was spreading in the North Korean
