for more than 10 years. It does not seem to be improving either. Rice has been replaced with corn or potatos, and meat is only provided for holidays.
A defector from Pyongyang stated that the effects of malnutrition can been seen in the countryside as students are stunted from a lack of food, and their physical strength is diminished. The KPA used to require that men had to be taller than 148 cm (58 inches) and heavier than 48 kg (106 lbs) but now that requirement is reportedly down to 145 cm (57 inches) and 40 kg (88 lbs).
The effects of malnutrition degrade everything from morale to body mass to mental faculties. One aspect that all defectors report is that even though the military is favored, there is still not enough food. Interestingly, North Korea reportedly cannot feed its population, but it has production lines running to produce tanks, artillery, ammunition, aircraft, submarines, surface ships, and missiles.
Conclusions.
Reunification of the peninsula on North Korean terms remains the foremost strategic goal of the regime. North Korea’s severe and probably irreversible economic decline places the regime’s survival in question. Therefore, Kim Jong Il must see reunification on their terms not only as their historic purpose, but also as essential to regime survival (another stated strategic goal). Continued investment in a powerful military organized and deployed to execute an offensive military strategy, despite its drain on a failing economy, strongly suggests that North Korean leaders perceive the military as probably the only remaining instrument for realization of that goal.
When evaluating an opposing enemy’s military forces, the commander will always ask what are the capabilities, the readiness, and the chances for enemy success? One must also add the question, “Would North Korea initiate an attack if its forces were not ready or capable?” Its current leader, Kim Jong Il, does not have the military training and experience that his father had. However, Kim’s father’s actual experiences and his father’s written experiences are two different things; the son is no different in this area. This differential view could lead to faulty or catastrophic decisions similar to those Saddam made in regard to military operations.
In March 2006, USFK Commander General Bell stated in Congressional testimony:
Despite its apparent economic decline and political isolation, North Korea continues to pose a dangerous and complex threat to regional and global peace and security. It maintains a massive, offensively postured conventional force that far exceeds the requirements to defend its country. There is little evidence to suggest the regime will abandon its “Military First” Policy, provocative diplomacy, nuclear challenges, missile proliferation and illegal activities, all of which are designed to contribute to its survival. North Korea will continue to maintain its bellicose stance toward the rest of the world, implementing limited policy and economic changes, while subjecting its people to continued repression. For now and into the foreseeable future, it will remain a major threat to stability and security in Northeast Asia and the world.
North Korea’s exact military and WMD capabilities may be incorrectly assessed, improperly evaluated, or simply unknown in some respects. However, there is no question that the KPA has significant offensive and defensive capabilities which cannot be overlooked or ignored. The debate continues as to what the KPA is focusing on and what its intentions for these military forces truly are. Whether or not these forces would be successful in either an offensive or defensive role probably is never questioned since it implies that failure is a possibility. The KPA may be employed based solely upon the whims of Pyongyang’s political leaders.
Conventional military forces and asymmetric SOF and WMD capabilities provide strong indications that North Korea’s intentions are still focused on a strategy of reunification by military force. If dictator Kim Jong Il ordered the KPA to launch an attack or invasion of South Korea, the North Korean military would be ready to implement it without question.
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